One of market indicators I observe is an equal volatility stocks/treasuries portfolio. I'm particularly interested in this indicator because it is a rough proxy to the portfolio of strategies I currently trade.
The portfolio consists of two ETFs: SPY for stocks and TLT for long-term treasury bonds. Both components are volatility-adjusted using one-month window and have equal weights after the adjustment.
Here is the portfolio equity, dividends included:
The vertical scale shows cumulative returns without reinvesting for the portfolio with 20% target yearly volatility.
In 2015, the portfolio showed a consistent decline: first treasuries have dropped on stocks staying in a range, then stocks has fallen without usual support from treasuries. At the moment, the portfolio drawdown depth is comparable with average historical.
I suppose it is reasonable to expect the equity to turn to growth. At least, this is a good point to enter a contrarian long position.
The portfolio consists of two ETFs: SPY for stocks and TLT for long-term treasury bonds. Both components are volatility-adjusted using one-month window and have equal weights after the adjustment.
Here is the portfolio equity, dividends included:
The vertical scale shows cumulative returns without reinvesting for the portfolio with 20% target yearly volatility.
In 2015, the portfolio showed a consistent decline: first treasuries have dropped on stocks staying in a range, then stocks has fallen without usual support from treasuries. At the moment, the portfolio drawdown depth is comparable with average historical.
I suppose it is reasonable to expect the equity to turn to growth. At least, this is a good point to enter a contrarian long position.
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