Thursday, September 10, 2015

Possible reverse point for the stocks/bonds portfolio

One of market indicators I observe is an equal volatility stocks/treasuries portfolio. I'm particularly interested in this indicator because it is a rough proxy to the portfolio of strategies I currently trade.

The portfolio consists of two ETFs: SPY for stocks and TLT for long-term treasury bonds. Both components are volatility-adjusted using one-month window and have equal weights after the adjustment.

Here is the portfolio equity, dividends included:

The vertical scale shows cumulative returns without reinvesting for the portfolio with 20% target yearly volatility.

In 2015, the portfolio showed a consistent decline: first treasuries have dropped on stocks staying in a range, then stocks has fallen without usual support from treasuries. At the moment, the portfolio drawdown depth is comparable with average historical.

I suppose it is reasonable to expect the equity to turn to growth. At least, this is a good point to enter a contrarian long position.

No comments:

Post a Comment